Director's View

By Johan de Villiers

When Donald Trump is inaugurated for his second term as president in January 2025, he will oversee a tech industry that has evolved considerably since his first term began in 2017. The initial favourable relationship between the tech sector and the U.S. government has diminished, with both Trump and President Joe Biden adopting critical perspectives toward tech executives, albeit for different reasons. Their antitrust enforcement actions have marked a significant shift, initiating some of the most substantial anti-monopoly measures seen in decades.

In response, many tech CEOs have adopted a more neutral public stance, aiming to appear apolitical while engaging in lobbying efforts behind the scenes. Some executives, however, have sought to cultivate favourable relationships with Trump, which appears to be yielding positive outcomes. For instance, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has publicly praised Trump despite previous tensions, and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos retracted an endorsement of Kamala Harris in The Washington Post. Additionally, Elon Musk has positioned himself as a key ally of Trump, reportedly securing a commitment to establish a "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE). As Trump prepares to expand his authority, he will need cooperation from Congress and the judiciary. The upcoming four years of tech policy are expected to be unpredictable.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Policy

Under Trump's leadership, the AI sector may experience reduced regulatory constraints. He has indicated plans to repeal the Biden administration's executive order on AI, which aimed to establish testing standards and safeguards against discrimination in AI applications. While Trump previously signed an executive order addressing AI safety, it did not focus on discrimination issues. It is anticipated that the new administration will deprioritize safeguards against AI discrimination and discourage extensive transparency measures. Elon Musk is likely to play a significant role in shaping AI policy if he maintains a positive rapport with Trump. Musk has been critical of established players like OpenAI and has previously supported safety measures; however, some researchers argue that his focus on existential risks may distract from pressing issues such as discrimination.

Antitrust Enforcement

Trump's approach to antitrust issues may be influenced by personal grievances rather than established economic principles. Analysts suggest that enforcement actions could reflect Trump's opinions about specific companies or industries. There is speculation about a potential "Trump Welfare Standard," where companies' treatment of Trump could influence regulatory outcomes. Although there may be some relief for businesses if FTC Chair Lina Khan departs, the overall aggressive antitrust climate is expected to persist.

TikTok Regulation

Trump's position on TikTok has shifted significantly since his initial push for a ban, now opposing such measures as potentially beneficial to competitors like Meta. Under the Biden administration, legislation was passed that could lead to a ban unless ByteDance divests its stake by mid-January. However, Trump's ability to navigate this issue may be limited by existing legal frameworks.

Trade Policies with China

Trump's administration is likely to continue its protectionist stance towards China, potentially reinstating high tariffs on imports that could significantly impact tech companies reliant on Chinese components. This approach could lead to increased costs for consumers and businesses alike.

Net Neutrality and Telecommunications

The likelihood of reinstating net neutrality regulations appears low under a Trump-led FCC. Analysts predict a substantial chance that the FCC will abandon efforts to classify broadband providers as common carriers, leading to less regulatory oversight. 

Content Moderation and Online Safety

Trump's administration may seek to revise Section 230 protections for social media platforms, responding to longstanding complaints about perceived bias against conservative viewpoints. This could result in significant changes in how content moderation is managed across platforms.

Electric Vehicles and Climate PoliciesThe future of electric vehicle tax credits appears uncertain under Trump’s leadership. While there may be challenges for EV-friendly policies due to his previous criticisms of such incentives, Tesla could still benefit from its established market position. In summary, as Trump prepares for his second term, various aspects of tech policy—from AI regulation to antitrust enforcement—are poised for significant changes that will require close monitoring as they unfold.

As we approach the close of another year, we want to take a moment to thank you for being a part of our journey. Whether you’re traveling, celebrating, or simply reflecting on the past months, we wish you safe travels, joyful celebrations, and a restful end to the year.

Here's to a successful, exciting new year ahead – we’re looking forward to continuing our journey together in 2025!

Warm Regards,

Johan de Villiers

CEO

First Technology Western Cape